I continue to be of the view that 2018 marked the beginning of the end of the 10-year Bull Market and that an important top was in the process of being established last year.
All signposts lead me to conclude that the topping process is still very much in play.
The principal sources of my concern are continued political turmoil, an untenable level of private and public market debt and a less-promising outlook for U.S. corporate profits and global economic growth.
The U.S. and world-wide bond markets are signaling an important message and I am fearful that there are now -- with a burgeoning U.S. deficit/debt load and a low by historical levels of interest rates -- few monetary and fiscal tools left to catalyze global growth.
Here Is a Top 10 List of Some of My Fears This Weekend:
1. Domestic economic growth weakens, Chinese growth fails to stabilize and Europe enters a recession.
2. U.S./China fail to agree on trade.
3. President Trump institutes an attack on European Union trade by raising auto tariffs.
4. U.S. Treasury yields fail to ratify an improvement in economic growth.
5. The market leadership of FANG and Apple (AAPL) subsides.
6. Earnings decline in 2019 and valuations fail to expand.
7. The Mueller report jeopardizes the president.
8. A hard and disruptive Brexit.
9. Crude oil supplies spike and oil prices collapse -- taking down the high-yield market.
10. European Central Bank President Draghi is replaced by a hawk.
(This commentary originally appeared on Real Money Pro on Feb. 7 and Feb. 8. Click here to learn about this dynamic market information service for active traders and to receive Doug Kass's Daily Diary and columns from Paul Price, Bret Jensen and others.)
