"Trumpets and violins I can hear in the distance
I think they're calling our names
Maybe now you can't hear them, but you will
If you just take hold of my hand
Ah! But are you experienced?
Have you ever been experienced?
-- Jimi Hendrix, Are Your Experienced?
I am unequivocal. I remain manifestly bearish on both stocks (value, growth and meme), bonds, Bitcoin and NFTs.
Stocks and Bonds Are Richly Priced
It makes no sense to say, as many do, that equities are inexpensive against an overpriced asset class (fixed income). Most traditional metrics indicate that stocks are at least in the 95th percentile -- a non trivial amount of indicators of valuation are in the 99th percentile.
Cryptocurrencies Are Vulnerable
The problem with fiat currencies, like the U.S. dollar, is that monetary authorities can create an unlimited amount of new dollars or other currencies -- making it look, to some, like a Ponzi scheme.
The problem with cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, is that anyone can make an unlimited number of new cryptocurrencies -- making it, too, look to some like a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi schemes and scams are only visible to those that have no sense of history or want to believe in magic.
I believe cryptocurrency is like Tinkerbell's light -- its power source is based solidly on enough children believing in it."
Neither an art form nor a platform exemplify the absurdity generated, in part, by liquidity and fairy dust (adopted by lemmings running towards the cliff).
The Popular and 'Cool Guys,' Value Stocks, Are Now Extended
That (arguably) includes banks, industrials and "opening" stocks.
The outlook for growth stocks will depend, importantly, on the future level of inflation and on what level GDP will be sustainable after the initial burst of growth. That debate's results will largely depend on whether the trajectory of the current abnormal GDP growth can moderate to a healthy pace in late 2021/2022 -- or will the enormous levels of debt (and its rising servicing load) work (and weigh) as a governor to aggregate growth. (Here is a good synopsis of the debate, excerpted from John Mauldin's Thoughts From The Frontline)
The Return of Meme Stocks Will Likely Be Short-Lived
I added Beyond Meat (BYND) and AMC (AMC) to my Best Ideas short list late last week -- Last Friday, GameStop's (GME) shares fell by -$46/share and AMC's shares declined by -$13/share from their intraday highs.) I will go one step further, it is my view, that those who are endorsing some of these worthless gewgaws will be made to look foolish and undisciplined in the fullness of time.
Here is the tape of my Bloomberg interview on Wednesday.
Here is a summary of my thoughts that I prepared for that interview.
But first, are you experienced?
(This commentary originally appeared on Real Money Pro on June 3. Click here to learn about this dynamic market information service for active traders and to receive Doug Kass's Daily Diary and columns from Paul Price, Bret Jensen and others.)