So, you missed Disney (DIS) , you missed JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and you missed Anadarko Petroleum (APC) . Now what do you do?
First, don't kick yourself. Few expected a level of specificity and long-term targets that Bob Iger gave you for the New Disney, and it is certainly a new Disney. My kids are grown up. But I can still recall all of the Disney movies of their youth and I paid a fortune for them. You pay $6.99 and that's not a fortune. It's a bargain. For once we didn't think about eroding ESPN subs. They have become a sideshow. The roadmap here is multi-year and other than a market-wide meltdown this train has left the $110 to $120 station.
JPMorgan delivered one of the best quarters I have ever seen a bank give and it was in every single metric. Thursday night I said there are so many different line items that it is very hard to figure out why a bank stock goes up or down given the varied nature of any bank's performance.
But what if every single line was better than expected, including capital markets and trading? What if the beat is an un-asterisked beat, meaning it was clean -- no hair on it whatsoever? What if things got better sequentially as things went on and March was a bang-up month?
Welcome to the world of JPMorgan, yes, it was that kind of quarter.
Chevron (CVX) buying Anadarko? It may be too late. It is true that there was another bidder, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) , as David Faber reported. Occidental is the best Permian operator and it might be able to pay even more for Anadarko. But it would have to have more cash than Chevron's offering in its $33 billion bid and I don't know that if you are Vicki Hollub, Oxy's terrific CEO, it is worth the risk because in the end, Chevron's a much bigger company and Anadarko seems inclined to go with them anyway. Better just to find another gem.
So, what do you do?
Let's tick them down. First, while it is too late to buy Disney, is it too late to buy Viacom (VIAB) and CBS (CBS) ? I have postulated that everyone seems to want content. For $40 billion you can get both.
I prefer Viacom because it is doing better -- my charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, owns it and we are increasing our holdings because it turns out that Viacom isn't easily extracted from the bundle because of Nickelodeon and Comedy Central, or AT&T (T) wouldn't have blinked a couple of weeks ago. You get Paramount and a great library.
With CBS you get the Masters, the NFL and years and years of sitcoms. Bargain.
Or you could buy Apple (AAPL) or Netflix (NFLX) , both of which were down today because of this. I think it's a false dichotomy. While I would like Apple to show its hand more on content, the fact is you will buy their package. It's right on your iPad or your iPhone and it will be part of your life. Own it. And own Apple, don't trade it, because of the service revenue and because of the Chinese numbers are looking better in the month of May according to Apple Ace Katy Huberty. You want your programming anywhere.That's Apple's credo.
I sure wish that some enterprising firm on Wall Street recognized that with financial services, with TV, with journalism, with gaming, with all sorts of ancillary must-haves from the app-store that you pay for every month, that Apple is more of a consumer packaged goods stock or a Disney for that matter. It will happen. One firm will break ranks and cover it that way. Hasn't happened yet. My prediction: 2020.
Banks? I say JPMorgan's stock, even after this run, is the cheapest. I don't think any of the banks can beat this number with the possible exception of Morgan Stanley (MS) . You may get lucky; Morgan Stanley reports Wednesday. You get weak results from a Goldman Sachs (GS) or a Citigroup (C) and you need to pounce.
Finally, speculating what other oils will get struck by lightning is usually a fools' game. But I think Oxy, BP (BP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will all step up now. The best analogues: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) , Cimarex Energy (XEC) , Noble Energy (NBL) , Concho Resources (CXO) and Apache Corp. (APA) . Please wait on these. Oil's a bear. You could get picked off. You will get your chance.
Transformative day? Yes. But you know what? Monday may not be transformative and we will be back in the grind. That's why you need to be a little careful, but one thing's for certain, we never thought, 24 hours ago, that it could possibly be this good, and maybe, it will perhaps, stay that way.
(JPMorgan Chase, Anadarko, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Viacom, Disney, Apple and BP are holdings in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS member club. Want to be alerted before Jim Cramer buys or sells these stocks? Learn more now.)
