Is Caterpillar's Correction Over?

The shares have corrected to the downside this month after a strong advance over the past year.

Jim Cramer tells Real Money readers we saw a "jailbreak" moment Thursday that set free a breadth of stocks, signaling more good things to come. Just when you thought the federal government had forgotten how to govern, it surprised us sending the stock market soaring.

One surprise was the infrastructure deal. Cramer said this news was totally unexpected, and was great for the usual construction-oriented stocks like United Rentals (URI) , Caterpillar (CAT) and Vulcan Materials (VMC) .

It has been a while since we looked at CAT so let's check on the charts.

In the updated daily bar chart of CAT, below, we can see that prices have corrected to the downside this month after a strong advance over the past 12 months. CAT tested the rising 50-day moving average line in April and May but broke below the average this month. The slope of the 50-day line is now negative. The 200-day line intersects just below $200.

Trading volume has increased this month and the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has turned lower. A declining OBV line tells us that volume on down days has been heavier than the volume on up days. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is below the zero line but narrowing towards a potential cover shorts buy signal.

 

In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of CAT, below, we only see some modest weakness. There are two long red candles this month but it looks like weakness below $210 is being rejected. Prices are above the rising 40-week moving average line.

 

The weekly OBV line shows only a slight dip in June so the bears have not taken control of the price movement. The MACD oscillator has crossed to the downside for a take profit sell signal.

 

 

In this daily Point and Figure chart of CAT, below, we can see that the software is projecting a potential decline to the $168 area.

 

 

In this weekly Point and Figure chart of CAT, below, we used close-only price data with a five-box reversal filter. Here the software tells us that we have reached a $235 price target.

 

 

Bottom-line strategy: So far it looks like CAT has made a tradeable low in June. Aggressive traders could go long CAT at current levels risking to $195 or just below the 200-day moving average line.

 

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