The market's reactions to real events and the predictions (sometimes fantasies) of what may be on the horizon continue to fascinate.
For example, markets should have tanked -- no pun intended -- yesterday, at least temporarily, on the news of the oil tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman. Such a reaction, if it happened, would have been overblown, but I'm still surprised it did not go down that way. I'm not quite sure what to make of this: Perhaps cooler heads prevailed, or the markets are buying in to the rate-cute fantasy that has gained steam, and that is overshadowing everything else.
Either way, it's "fun" -- if unnerving -- to watch, because the Fed will not be cutting rates, and one wonders what will happen when that sinks in. Or, what will happen when we start to get real about the deficits, and still growing national debt, but I'll save that for another day.
Elsewhere, in distressed "Smallville," a place that does not require tanker sinkings, rate-cut fantasies, or national-debt worries to bring volatility, a few situations have had some interesting recent developments.
Timeshare name Bluegreen Vacations (BXG) , which has tanked recently after it's merger with BBX Capital (BBX) was canceled, and days later again after Bass Pro Shops announced it was ending it's marketing agreement with the company, should get a boost Friday, following pre-market announcement of a settlement with Bass Pro. BXG will not only be able to sell out of Bass Pro locations, it will also be able to do so from 75 Cabela's location (Bass Pro acquired Cabela's in 2017). Part of the agreement requires BXG to pay Bass Pro $20 million now, plus $5 million a year from 2020 and 2024, but this may put BXG back in the game. It will be interesting to see whether merger talks with BBX, which already owns 90% of BXG, resume now that the issues with Bass Pro have been resolved.
Meanwhile, home-meal kit name Blue Apron (APRN) announced that the terms of its upcoming reverse-stock split will be 1-for-15, expected to go into effect after Friday's market close. I don't expect that this will be pretty for existing shareholders; reverse splits usually aren't.
Finally, the action in Biglari Holdings (BH) , (BH.A) shares continues to be very curious. It's been an ugly ride for sure for the name that has been slammed recently, mostly because of the horrendous performance of its Steak 'n Shake brand. BH shares, which hit $162 in late April, fell 45% over the next month, likely because its flagship communication with shareholders and the outside world -- the annual shareholders meeting -- failed to generate any confidence. BH.A, the A shares that hold all of the voting rights, fell 40% during the same time-frame. Since then, we've seen a little life, as BH has risen 16%, and BH.A is up 31%. It's no wonder that there's been some positive action: The company owns 14.7% of Cracker Barrel (CBRL) , worth $588 million, while its own market cap languishes at just $350 million. With a little confidence in management, Biglari Holdings shares should be worth at least twice the current price, emphasis on the words "confidence" and "should."
Blue Apron is a holding in TheStreet's Stocks Under $10 portfolio.
