Yes, its been quite a year, and Friday I'll be hosting a virtual 1st Birthday Party, see below, for my beloved model portfolio, HOAX, which has risen 51.23% since its inception on December 21, 2021.
I will perform a deep-dive into HOAX's 2022 performance. Then I will explain why I am making only minor changes to my real-world client portfolios which are powered by HOAX. Yes, I believe 2023 will be a lot like 2022. That's not laziness, it's just a reflection of reality.
Because of lunatic-like Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) acolytes and the actions of Vladimir Putin, the world just is not producing enough hydrocarbons now. I will have all manner of charts and graphs to demonstrate this, but please remember my energy investing mantra: focus on supply. Always. Supply and demand is still in our favor, so we own a boatload of energy stocks. Don't overthink it.
But speaking of people who don't think, HOAX's benchmark -- Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) -- has posted a mere 68.49% decline in the past year. You are killing it, Cathie Wood! But, that's the difference between my posse of clients and readers and a someone like Wood. We constantly reanalyze our positions while she just spouts idiotic, unscientific clichés. For the last word on that I will leave it to Dan Loeb of Third Point. Dan was quoted Thursday as saying of Ms. Wood's latest article:
Anyone teaching a value investing class or one on investment psychology should use this memo as a treatise to study the mindset of stonk hodlers..."
The full writeup is available on our sister website, TheStreet.com here. Dan manages a few billion more than I do (for now, anyway) for Third Point and I try to listen when he speaks.
Cathie Wood, of course, made her name with Tesla (TSLA) . Tesla shares are in absolute free fall now, hitting yet another 52-week low in this morning's trading. Why? Because Tesla's main product (autos) are expensive consumer goods that are being marketed to a really, really, stretched global consumer. Add to that higher interest rates, which increase the monthly cost of financing a new Model Y, and Tesla's products are simply less affordable than they were a year ago.
Note that that last paragraph did not include the words "Elon" "Twitter" or any other such obfuscatory tactics that many who populate FinTV attempt to use to explain the horrible performance of a consumer products stock in a horrible global economy. Again, don't overthink it.
Also, in the setup for my call Friday, I decided to go with Google Meet instead of Zoom (ZM) . Zoom was the source of one of Cathie Wood's most ill-advised statements, which is quite a statement itself, when she predicted ZM would reach $1,200/sh. It was recently trading at $66.57, a number that nearly equals ZM's percentage decline in 2022.
So, I reserve the right to change my mind if Google Meet seizes up on me during Friday's call, but to this point I have yet to see anything that Zoom offers that Google Meet does not. Zoom, as Warren Buffett would say, has no "moat." I am writing this column on my Android phone with my Chromebook sitting four feet away, I have used the Google search engine several times to check facts within this column. I also saw Thursday morning that Google's YouTube TV won the rights to NFL Sunday Ticket, which covers one of my favorite non-investing pastimes.
Key takeaway: Don't mess with Alphabet Google (GOOGL) . They are so powerful...and they will squash Zoom like a bug. This is a replay of what Apple (AAPL) did with BlackBerry (BB) which, believe it or not, is still a publicly traded company.
So, that's a sneak peak into what we will be discussing. The first year of HOAX had brought me into contact with so many folks and spurred me into producing other model portfolios -- 14 at this point -- that I propagate via Real Money and elsewhere.
It has been a great year, and that is because of your support and engagement. Friday I will try to give a little back. These conversations have worked so well because so many of you have actively participated. Please have your questions ready, and please put me on the spot. I can't wait!
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This is a free event, of course, and I hope you can all join in.
HOAX 1st Birthday Party
Friday, December 23: 11:00am - 12:00pm
Google Meet joining info
Video call link: https://meet.google.com/gwo-kuqp-gth
Or dial: (US) +1 774-318-6393 PIN: 409 439 020#
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