Citigroup Inc. ( C) shares have traded sideways for several months now, but spillover selling today beyond banks downgraded by Moody's on credit risk and other concerns may tip the big bank's charts to the downside. Let's review the charts and indicators of Citigroup to see where its stock may head from here.
In this daily bar chart of C, below, I can see that prices have oscillated around the $46 level for several months. Prices have crossed above and below the 50-day and 200-day moving average lines several times. The trading volume histogram has been mixed the past year but has shrunk since the middle of March; volume typically declines in sideways patterns as active traders are attracted by trending stocks. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has moved sideways since early March and suggests a balance at best between aggressive buying and aggressive selling. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is ready to move below the zero line for an outright sell signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of C, below, I can see a weak setup. Prices made a serious decline from the first half of 2021 into late 2022. The subsequent sideways move in price has not shown me signs of accumulation (buying). Trading volume has declined and the OBV line has been weak. Prices have struggled to stay above the 40-week moving average line and the MACD oscillator has been unable to make a move above the zero line.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of C, below, I used close-only price data. The software shows an upside price target in the $56 area, but a trade at $44.83 could begin to tip this chart bearish.
In this second Point and Figure chart of C, below, I used weekly close-only price data. Here the charts give us a downside price target in the $34 area.
Bottom line strategy: Rating agencies move slowly and are typically late to the party, but the concerns they raise should not be ignored. Avoid the long side of C and probably other banks in the days ahead.
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Although the charts show a bottom in October 2022, the vast majority of stocks never rallied and speculative strength never took hold.
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