Shares of Roku ( ROKU) have moved higher in a step-wise fashion since May. The $64,000 question now is whether this pattern can continue or whether a deeper pullback is about to begin.
Let's check out the charts.
In the daily bar chart of ROKU, below, I can see that the shares have declined throughout the month of August and are now testing the rising 50-day moving average line. The volume spike at the beginning of the month suggests a lot of new buyers of ROKU and the pullback suggests these buyers are slowly "throwing in the towel."
The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a rise from early 2023 but it has turned sideways in August suggesting a balance between bulls and bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is just slightly above the zero line and thus slightly away from an outright sell signal.
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of ROKU, below, I see a mixed picture. Prices have been basing after a long decline. The base is big enough to get the attention of the bulls but the indicators are not ready to join the bull camp. The shares are trading above the 40-week moving average line but its slope is barely positive.
The weekly trading volume has been active but the weekly OBV line made a lower high in July when prices made a higher high. This difference is a bearish divergence and suggests that ROKU could weaken. The MACD oscillator is only slightly above the zero line.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of ROKU, below, I can see a downside price target in the $68 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of ROKU, below, I can see an upside price target in the $121 area.
Bottom-line strategy: ROKU pulled back in June and in July but the latest pullback in August is different and I think it is foreshadowing further losses in the weeks ahead. Avoid the long side of ROKU.
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Although the charts show a bottom in October 2022, the vast majority of stocks never rallied and speculative strength never took hold.
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