Marriott is outlining its growth plans today at an investor meeting. According to media reports, the company plans to add between 275,000 and 295,000 rooms by 2021 out of its pipeline of 478,000 rooms. Returns to shareholders are also expected from dividend growth and a share repurchase program.
MAR is higher in early trading so let's check out the charts and indicators to see if we want to stay overnight or longer.
In the daily bar chart of MAR, below, we can see that prices weakened into late December but the rally from early January has been strong enough to take prices above the popular moving averages as well as the November highs. MAR is above the rising 50-day moving average line and the bottoming 200-day line.
The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line declined from late September to the middle of January telling us that sellers were more aggressive. The OBV line rose into late February signaling more aggressive buying but that rise was temporary.
The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator gave a cover shorts buy signal in early January and an outright go long signal in early February. Earlier this month this indicator crossed to the downside for a take profits sell signal.
In this weekly bar chart of MAR, below, we can see that prices are just barely above the declining 40-week moving average line. The rally in early 2019 looks like some of the other rallies the past 12 months -- all of which have failed. The weekly OBV line has been flat for months.
The weekly MACD oscillator has crossed to the upside for a cover shorts buy signal but has begun to narrow again below the zero line.
In this Point and Figure chart of MAR, below, we can see a downtrend and a potential downside price target of $113. A trade at $130 will be bullish on this chart.
Bottom-line strategy: In full disclosure I am a very loyal Marriott customer (and a Vacation Club member) but the charts and indicators of MAR are not convincing at this juncture in time. Buyers of MAR should consider pushing back their reservations to later in the second quarter when a better buying opportunity could develop.
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