Automatic Data Processing ( ADP) gets our attention every month when they report employment numbers just ahead of those from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Could the stock charts of ADP be telling us something about the U.S. economy? Let's check.
In the daily bar chart of ADP, below, I can see some troubling price weakness. The shares have declined in December and January to break both the cresting 50-day moving average line and the cresting 200-day moving average line. The trading volume has increased in January as traders have voted with their feet, so to speak.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has declined sharply in December and January telling me that sellers of ADP have been very aggressive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is in a bearish alignment below the zero line.
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of ADP, below, I see a number of bearish clues. First, I see that the shares have broken the uptrend line (not drawn) from the 2020 low. Second, I can see that prices have closed below the 40-week moving average line. This has happened before but now the slope of the 40-week line is weakening.
The weekly OBV line shows weakness from April. The MACD oscillator is pointed down and is close to the zero line.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of ADP, below, I can see a downside price target in the $192 area.
In this second Point and Figure chart of ADP, below, I used weekly price data with a five-box reversal filter, which yields a price target in the $159 area.
Bottom-line strategy: ADP shares could make a temporary rebound, but the bigger picture is for further price weakness in the months ahead. Will weakness in shares of ADP be driven by a shrinking customer base? I have no special knowledge but I can ask questions.
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The Dow and the small caps turned up on Monday, but many charts that I'm looking at are still a mess, and I don't see any reason to put cash to work.
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