• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Doug Kass
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • TheStreet Smarts
  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Stocks

A Game of Catch in the Market

In the last five trading days, the S&P 500 has developed a pattern, so let's connect the balls ... er ... dots.
By HELENE MEISLER
Nov 17, 2022 | 06:00 AM EST

As long-time readers know, I have an affinity for patterns -- not just chart patterns, but market patterns. Like if the last six Mondays are down and Tuesdays are up or Nasdaq has been up for a number of days, I find patterns of note. They are of note, because if they change it means something has changed in the market.

In the last five trading days, the S&P 500 has developed a pattern. It's more like it's playing catch or ping-pong, but look at these closes on the S&P since last Thursday:

Thursday: 3956

Friday: 3992

Monday: 3957

Tuesday: 3991

Wednesday: 3958

That means if we break either end of this range then the pattern of the last week, essentially since the day everyone got so excited over the lower-than-expected consumer price index has changed. Clearly, Thursday is a big test for this.

But more than that, this means since Thursday's close, the market's breadth is up 300 and the S&P is up 2 points. That is pretty much in line. What is not in line is the number of stocks making new highs. (yes, I'm harping on this metric). Last Thursday the New York Stock Exchange had 75 new highs. Wednesday there were 53.

The Nasdaq is no better. Notice the Hi-Lo Indicator has turned south enough that you can see it now.

Then there's the Investors Intelligence bulls which are now at 38.6% which is the highest since the August high when they were 45%. The bears are at 32.8%. This is the first time we've had more bulls than bears in two months.

I often discuss the put/call ratio, which I find telling at times (more on that below). But the 21-day moving average of the put/call ratio for exchange-traded funds is worth discussing, because it is now at the lowest level of the year and is fast approaching the lows set in November and December last year. That peak you see (green arrow) on the chart is late September so you can see the change in sentiment rather clearly.

Let me note that the total put/call ratio on Wednesday zoomed up to 1.22, so on a very short term basis there were a good deal of puts being bought. That's good news. The bad news is that at this point a high reading is going to turn this moving average upward and when it heads upward, it is generally not supportive of stocks.

Finally there are bonds. The yield on the 10 Year is coming into support, so I would expect sometime in the next few days we'll see yields lift.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.
TAGS: Investing | Stocks | Technical Analysis |

More from Stocks

The Mask Gets Yanked Off of Goldilocks Narrative

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 21, 2023 4:29 PM EDT

The bulls' story always sounded like a stretch, and now they will have to develop a new narrative to help drive a recovery.

Doug Kass: Risk Happens Fast. This Is All About to Get Real

Doug Kass
Sep 21, 2023 2:30 PM EDT

Caution and stock market congestion may lie ahead as interest rates stay higher for longer, while the stock market decline has now assumed a global character. Plus, more lessons from Howard Marks.

After Splunk Grab, Cisco's a Slam Dunk

Stephen Guilfoyle
Sep 21, 2023 11:54 AM EDT

I didn't like the idea of a cash deal at the start, but after going through the fundamentals, I think it's a wise move -- and here's why I'm adding the stock.

The Day After the Fed Meeting, I'm Gambling on This Stock

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 21, 2023 11:27 AM EDT

Here's why I like this gaming-related play, and why stocks could eventually offer some good entry points -- but not yet.

Whoa, We're (Only) Half Way There: Why the Correction May Have a Long Way to Go

Guy Ortmann
Sep 21, 2023 10:12 AM EDT

Four key indexes shifted their trends from neutral to bearish Wednesday.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 10:24 AM EDT BRUCE KAMICH

    This Could Get Messy

    A number of key stocks are getting close to import...
  • 01:41 PM EDT CHRIS VERSACE

    Latest AAP Podcast With Helene Meisler!

    Listen in as the Action Alerts PLUS podcast talks ...
  • 09:07 AM EDT JAMES "REV SHARK" DEPORRE

    This Weekend on Real Money

    The Most Common and Costly Mistake in Investing
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2023 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login