Online auto retailer Carvana ( CVNA) has been in a downtrend and now a sell side firm downgraded the stock to hold with a $40 price target which may be optimistic according to the charts. Let's check.
In this daily bar chart of CVNA, below, we can see that prices are weak. CVNA is in a downward trend since August and trades below the declining 50 moving average line and below the declining 200-day line. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) is in a decline and trading volume has increased, both of which tell me to expect further price weakness. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is bearish and has been since September.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of CVNA, below, we see a weak and bearish picture. The chart shows many red or bearish candles. No bottom reversal pattern and no lower shadows. The bears are in control here. The slope of the 40-week line is negative. The weekly OBV line is sinking fast and the MACD oscillator is bearish.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of CVNA, below, we used a five box reversal filter. Here the software tells us that prices reached and exceeded a downside price target of $51.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of CVNA, below, we used weekly close only price data with a five box reversal filter. Here the price target is $0 - zero. A bit dramatic but I won't argue with the direction.
Bottom line strategy: Will everyone go back to shopping for a car at a dealership? Who knows but right now the charts of CVNA are in a tailspin and no low or bottom has been made. Continue to avoid the long side.
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The only reason to exit the stock now is profit-taking.
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