Roblox (RBLX) may be popular with millions of gamers who want to create their own game or another world, but the charts do not seem to be in agreement even as the analysts at Citigroup (C) rated it a new buy with a $59 price target.
Let me show you my non-virtual charts.
In this daily bar chart of RBLX, below, we can see that prices were in a sideways trading range before an upside "pop" in November. The price strength did not last long and RBLX began a decline to an early March low. Prices made a feeble recovery for the balance of March but remain below the declining 50-day moving average line. The trading volume has been more active the past three to four months including a big volume spike in February when prices gapped lower.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line declined from November to March telling us that traders were more aggressive sellers. The 12-day price momentum study shows us higher lows from January to March as the pace of the decline slowed but this does not give us an impressive and long bullish divergence.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of RBLX, below, we can see a bullish engulfing pattern in early March but the pattern was never confirmed with a follow-on bullish (white) candle. The small real red bodies with upper shadows suggest that traders are rejecting any gains.
The 40-week moving average line is bearish and the OBV line too. Momentum is improving but it is an imprecise indicator.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of RBLX, below, we can see a downside price target of $38.
Bottom line strategy: Sometimes the fundamental story and the technical story are on the same page. Sometimes not. The charts suggest RBLX could weaken further in the weeks and months ahead. I would avoid the long side.
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