In their zeal to predict a market low one factor that many market players overlook is risk management. You can make market timing calls all day long and you will get it right just as a matter of luck at times but it is risk management that ultimately pays the bills
The primary goal of a trader should be to find situations that offer the most potential upside with the lowest amount of risk. You can't help but make money if you consistently trade those situations.
Unfortunately, many traders are much more focused on making the big call without regard to risk. They will keep proclaiming that the market has made a low or that this or that may occur. They may be right but those sorts of calls without some management of risk tends to lead to suboptimal results.
One reason we have been hearing so much about 'retests' of lows recently is that if a retest occurs it makes for a less risky entry point compared to chasing a V-shaped bounce. A retest sets up natural stop out points while the chase of a V-bounce is more problematic in that regard. You can still control risk when chasing but it is much more arbitrary.
As I consider the current market my focus is on finding entries that offer the least amount of risk. That has nothing to do with whether the market is at a low or not. It is based primarily on the analysis of charts and consideration of a variety of facts such as whether there is basing action or some form of support.
I want to find stocks when they have their best chance of sustained upside. This is likely to occur after a low has formed. It greatly disturbs some traders to not try to buy exact lows but that is because they have been conditioned by Wall Street to take the old saying of "buy low, sell high" too literally. The better saying is "the trend is your friend" but that requires more effort to actually apply.
The downside risk in this market is still very elevated. That does not mean that the lows have already been seen. It simply means that it isn't a good situation in which to put significant capital to work.