Don't turn big profits into big losses, Jim Cramer told viewers of Mad Money Thursday night. When you've got big gains in a speculative stock, count your blessings and sell. Cramer said it's time to ring the register on two early-stage biotechs, Novavax (NVAX) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) , two companies working on a Covid-19 vaccine.
This is sound advice but I looked at the charts of NVAX today to see if there were technical reasons to become a seller.
In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of NVAX, below, we can see just two upper shadows at the end of June. There is a doji at the beginning of July but it lacks bearish confirmation. I do not see a pattern of 8 to 10 record highs to tell me that prices are extended and vulnerable to a reversal.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has risen nicely with the price action and does not show a bearish divergence. The moving averages that we favor have positive slopes and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has narrowed but not crossed to the downside for a take profits signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of NVAX, below, we do see a doji pattern telling us there is a balance between bulls and bears as the opening and closing was the same. The next weekly candlestick pattern needs to confirm this as a reversal with a bearish candle. That might not happen and we could see the uptrend being "refreshed".
The weekly OBV line is bullish and so is the MACD oscillator.
In this Point and Figure chart of NVAX, below, we used daily price data. The software is reading the X's and O's as accumulation (buying) and generated a potential upside price target in the $172 area. This price target is in no way guaranteed but a downside price target would give me poise about going long. A trade at $70.15 would weaken this chart.
Bottom line strategy: NVAX may indeed be speculative but at this juncture in time I find no glaring reasons to be a seller. That could change at any time. Longs should risk a close below $70
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