In our last review of Lululemon Athletica ( LULU) on December 9, we recommended "Again like last quarter, I have no special knowledge of what the officers of LULU are going to report to shareholders tonight. The charts and indicators of LULU are pointed down at this point in time and they could head still lower. A reflex rally is possible but I would avoid the long side of LULU for now."
Prices wrer trading lower Thursday on the heels of a lowered price target by a sell-side firm. Earnings are not expected until later this month. Let's look at the charts again.
In this daily bar chart of LULU, below, we can see that prices have had a rough trip since November. LULU is trading below the declining 50-day moving average line. We can see a bearish dead or death cross at the start of February as the 50-day line crossed below the 200-day line. Trading volume has been heavier the past three months as traders have been more active.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been in a decline telling us that sellers are more aggressive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has been bearish since early December.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of LULU, below, we see a mixed picture. We can see that prices are in a downtrend below the negatively sloped 40-week moving average line. Prices are trying to hold previous support in the $300-$275 area. Some lower shadows can be seen but a long red (bearish) candle can quickly cancel that out.
The OBV line has been soft since November and the MACD oscillator is bearish but has narrowed in recent weeks.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of LULU, below, we can see a potential downside price target of $225. A trade at $332 could improve this picture.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of LULU, below, we can see a less bearish downside price target in the $249 area.
Bottom line strategy: We have been able to sidestep the big declines in LULU so far. The charts and indicators do not give us a strong reason to probe the long side so continue to avoid purchases.
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