The one great certainty of the market is cycles of ups and downs. Booms follow busts, and bear markets follow bull markets.
That is never going to change, but every cycle plays out differently. Market pundits like to make historical comparisons, but conditions are never exactly the same, and the action always develops in a different manner. Just because a bubble popped in 2000 and there was a two-year bear market doesn't mean that it is going to happen again in the same way.
Currently, many stocks are undergoing a corrective cycle. As I've pointed out repeatedly, much of this corrective action is being hidden by the senior indexes. The corrective action is no big surprise, but the manner in which it is occurring is quite different than what we have seen in the past. There is no way to know how this will eventually resolve itself, but the corrective cycle itself is just that natural action of the market.
While it can be miserable to struggle with a bear cycle, there is absolutely no question that it will set the stage for the next boom cycle. We don't know what the new leadership might be, but the opportunities will be there again. All we have to do is make sure we have capital.
One major thing that has changed since the bear market in 2000-2003 is that corrective cycles have been much faster in recent years. 2002 was probably the worst bear market action I ever experienced because it seemed to drag out forever. The market topped out in early 2000, and it didn't find a good low until the invasion of Iraq in early 2003.
Subsequent bear markets, including the recession in 2008-9 and the pandemic in 2020, have been much shorter. The bottom not only occurred faster, but the recoveries have been straight up.
We are currently in some sort of corrective cycle right now, but we will just have to stay vigilant and patient and watch how it develops. I don't know what will happen, but I think it's a good bet that it will be unlike any other cycle.