The most notable thing about the market action to wrap up the week is that we had the narrowest range of action in a long time. The last time the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded in such a narrow range was on the half day of trading following Thanksgiving.
While the tight range made for a dull day of trading it is a longer-term positive. The S&P 500 is up 9 of the last 12 days and just barely missed a positive close again today. This is a market that needs to rest and consolidate a bit to support another leg higher.
Earnings season starts next week with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting on Tuesday before the market open. There are a few other financials during the week but the most interesting report will be from Netflix (NFLX) on Thursday after the close.
This big run up in the indices into the reports is not a particularly favorable setup. Expectations have risen and there is a great chance of a "sell the news" response to reports that are just OK.
What had been helping the market over the last couple weeks is positive expectations on China trade and the dovish tone of Jerome Powell. The earnings shortfall from Apple (AAPL) has been forgotten but we are going to start finding out pretty soon how isolated that problem might be.
There is also talk that the government shutdown is going to start having some effect on the economy. So far the market has been unconcerned about the issue despite plenty of anecdotal evidence of some negative fallout. If there is impact on some of the macro level numbers then the market is going to start reacting a bit more.
We are at a difficult juncture right now with the indices and running into resistance but plenty of hope that the worst is over and good news lies ahead on trade and a resolution of the shutdown issue. The risk of disappointment is high but that isn't being reflected in the price action.
Have a great weekend. I'll see you on Monday.
