The ice age is comin' the sun's zoomin' in...a nuclear error, but I have no fear. The lyrics are from London Calling by The Clash and the weather is from... insert your chosen higher power here. I am still in Europe and am very amused to read that it is snowing today in London, although the only accumulation is happening north of the capital.
It's the weather. Humans cannot predict it. If you think humans can control it... this may not be the column for you.
I will once again promote my HOAX portfolio - up 39.3% since 12/23/21 vs. the 30.7% decline from its benchmark, Cathie Wood's un-seaworthy (ARKK) . I am onboarding new HOAX clients this week. It is never too late to buy companies that generate cash and return it to shareholders.
Instead of raging against the mass hysteria that grips some in the world - especially in the mainstream media and especially in Europe - I choose to take the other side of the trade.
Joe Strummer's lyrics from London Calling always inform my work. Not only did the "new ice age" that he had been reading about in the late 1970s never occur, but the world really has only seen one nuclear error of any consequence, and that was Chernobyl. I hope the Russians are not disturbing that site, but with Vlad, who knows.
I grew up 30 miles from Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania and am well aware there was no material radiation leak from that "accident," not more than one would get from sitting in the sun. Fukushima in Japan was a comedy of errors from a design point of view, but tsunamis are really only a risk in a handful of developed countries.
Remember it is the same people who were holding No Nukes placards in the 1980s - with as much vitriol aimed at power plants as missiles - that are now spreading the doomsday mythology of climate change. It's the same people!
The world needs more power, not less. I have mentioned many times China's fervor in building coal-fired power generation plants, and ARCH and BTU have been the two strongest performers in HOAX.
But China is also building nuclear reactors. China needs more uranium, and Global X has the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) which allows an individual investor to gain exposure to the radioactive element.
I am not an expert on the field, but the latest nuclear power technology seems to be small modular reactors. One leading light there is NuScale Power, which has filed to go public via a SPAC, Spring Valley Acquisition (SV) . NuScale partners with several entities, Fluor (FLR) being the most prominent it's also NuScale's majority investor.
You could buy Fluor, on a recent upswing, but still down 44% over the trailing five-year period, or you could buy SV before it "de-SPACs" NuScale.
I am not hugely enamored of the SPAC model, but I do believe there are diamonds in that rough. One of the companies I have frequently written about for Real Money, Sarcos Robotics, was the product of a SPAC. You can watch my Fireside Chat with Sarcos' executive Chairman, Ben Wolff here.
I have the energy aspect covered with HOAX, and I will drop a hint that Fluor is a strong candidate to be included in HOAX 2.0, which I will reveal in April.
It saddens me that it took the actions of lunatic Putin to remind the markets of this, but the world needs more stuff. Sadly, that stuff is going to cost MUCH more than it has in the past few years... inflation is not going anywhere.
As I mentioned in a recent research report for OHM Research in Sao Paulo, the world needs more power production and fewer tweets. I have mentioned many times in my Real Money column that I find Twitter (TWTR) to be a cesspool with no redeeming value. I calculate a $10 fair value for TWTR shares
We should be investing in companies that make things and provide vital infrastructure to power the planet and move its residents around. The other stuff is just Cathie Wood-style hype.
It's not all energy companies, though, as much as HOAX has me riding high these days. Apple (AAPL) produces products, although it manufactures almost none of them in-house. Tesla (TSLA) is extraordinarily, jaw-droppingly overvalued, but it does produce a product and they are fun to drive.
But what does Meta Platforms (FB) "make?" What does Twitter "build?" Nothing. They are just Big Tech time-wasters with no redeeming social value.
Much like my body, this column has covered a lot of ground. I have one final request: make sure your portfolio is at least partially composed of companies that make stuff.