The indices are inching higher on good breadth of about 4150 gainers to 2525 decliners. This is 'don't short a dull market' action as traders look for something to do in the slow period in front of the Fed. The movement is random and will shift quickly when the Fed news hits.
I'm managing positions and not doing anything substantial at this point. I will react to the news flow as it occurs and won't try to anticipate what might happen.
One group that I'm watching more closely is gold mining. There are always some gold bugs around to tell us why we should own the precious metal but there seem to be more calls recently that a major uptrend will begin soon.
The fundamental case for gold always sounds intriguing but it is the timing that is the issue. The only rational way to play gold is to look for indications that an uptrend might begin and then average in slowly with some loose stops.
Gold miners (GDX) have been trending down since September 4, 2019 but seem to have found some recent support. They are hovering around the 50-day simple moving average and now need a few higher highs to signal that the trend is turning back up.
A couple of miners that I own are SSR Mining (SSRM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD) . Agnico Eagle (AEM) and Sibanye Gold (SBGL) are a couple more that I'm watching.
Gold miners typically make a move on the Fed due to reactions in the dollar. A hawkish Fed tends to boost interest rates which strengthen the dollar and weakens gold. A dovish Fed will generally weaken the dollar and that will cause gold to rise.
We'll see how gold reacts to the Fed at 2 pm ET but I'm watching for indications that the gold bugs may finally be right about the long term positive prospects for it.
