A Real Money subscriber emailed me asking whether it was safe to reenter the long side of Salesforce.com (CRM) as the month of December has not been very kind to it.
We looked at CRM on December 1, writing that "Remaining longs are likely to get stopped out here on Wednesday at our suggested stop of $265. Stand aside and let's see where buyers return."
In this daily bar chart of CRM, below, we can see that prices declined sharply in late November and early December. CRM stopped short of the 200-day moving average line and bounced briefly. Prices have moved lower and this time they've broken below the 200-day line. Chart support in the $250-$235 area may hold prices in place without further erosion.
The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows weakness from early November and that tells us that sellers of CRM have been more aggressive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is in sell territory but it has been narrowing which tells us that the decline is weakening.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of CRM, below, we can see that prices are below the 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line shows a decline from early November. The MACD oscillator has turned lower for a take profit sell signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of CRM, below, we can see a potential downside price target in the $234 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of CRM, below, we can see a possible downside price target in the $195 area.
Bottom line strategy: CRM could stabilize around current levels but the Point and Figure charts have lower price targets. Let's continue to stand aside and see how things develop. Let someone else test the temperature of the water. Glad we had a stop at $265.
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A limited rally cooled some of the negativity on the market, but guess what's going to hit the fan soon?
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