The price of crude oil is watched closely by nearly everyone on the planet. So let's check out the charts to see if a tradable bottom is being made.
In the daily Japanese candlestick chart of the continuous Crude Oil futures contract (a method of plotting that links up the nearby futures contract to create a longer-term chart) we can see some positive improvement. Prices have rallied above the declining 10-day and 20-day moving average lines (futures traders have historically used shorter moving averages than equity traders).
The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line moved sideways from early September even though prices moved lower. This difference in movement is a bullish divergence. The 12-day price momentum study also shows us a bullish divergence as the pace of the decline has slowed since late June even as prices have fallen.
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of Crude Oil futures, below, we can see a bottom-reversal pattern in the last two weeks of September and the beginning of October. Bottom reversals can be a turn from down to up or a turn from down to sideways.
The slow stochastic indicator (an oversold/overbought indicator) is crossing upwards from an oversold reading. This adds some confidence to a bullish outlook.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of Crude Oil futures, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $93 area. A rally to $93 would break the downtrend on this chart.
Bottom-line strategy: The charts (above) have improved and can support a rally in the days ahead. This can mean that more short-term buy signals are generated. One signal to watch for is the 10-day average line crossing above the 20-day moving average line.
Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.
The 10/2 spread could be opening the door to what we have dreaded for so long: a recession that now feels like it might not end up being so soft or so shallow.
There has been an interesting shift in market behavior recently.
Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation.
If you have questions, please contact us here.
Email
Email sent
Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.