Strange Data and Confusing Market Reactions
One thing needs to resolve itself now that higher-for-longer inflation is becoming the consensus.
Market Kindling, Misery Index, Inflation Fright, Bond Spreads, 'Dirtiest' Crypto
There was a time when we would see a headline cross, then watch for the tape to move. Now, we see the tape move and then look for the headline.
This Market Is More Selective Than the Indices Imply
It's one reason for maintaining a neutral near-term outlook for equities.
Treasuries Are the Dogs of Average Portfolios -- But That Probably Won't Last
I've yet to see an asset or sector that is wildly underweight in portfolios fail to deliver going forward.
The Fed Is the Least of My Concerns
In response to the Evergrande situation, look for China to further its domestic focus at the expense of its global focus.
What the 'Messy' August Jobs Report Means for Investors and the Fed
This payroll result should be a reminder that just because there aren't a lot of new legal restrictions doesn't mean consumers won't change behavior.
What Fed Tapering Would Mean for the Markets and Economy
Ahead of Jackson Hole, the Fed knows QE is doing more harm than good.
Simplifying the Rates Market
As Jackson Hole approaches, here are my views on tapering, rate hikes and the markets.
This Is a Tough Environment to Forecast Rates
With so many questions around inflation, COVID, the Fed, and stimulus and policy, it's hard to determine what will happen in the rates market. Here's my take.
The Inflation Decision Tree
Decide what you think the inflation story is going to be and position accordingly.