Let's start with some history. Interest rates have been around for a very long time. I once got a chart of interest rates going back 5,000 years. True. Some of the data came from the Old Testament.
Many of you may have seen a 200-year chart of U.S. interest rates prepared from data from Sydney Homer and his book "The History of Interest Rates."
In this sample of the 200-year chart, below, (not updated with more current data), you can see that rates move up and down in a huge sideways pattern. There are definite periods of time when rates have trended both up, like from 1951 to 1981, and down, like from 1981.
The key takeaway from this chart is that the downtrend of rates from 1981 has been broken.