We are at the late end of the economic cycle, so trade disputes and fiscal easing now could easily cause the next recession.
The president's attempts to intimidate Jerome Powell probably won't impact Fed policy, with one possible exception.
Fed policy makers, research directors and the media seem clueless that the economy is slowing, not growing.
But here are the signs to watch, and how to protect yourself.
The stocks that performed well were the stocks that you would reach for in a recession.
Synchrony Financial and Gulfport Energy both offer reasons to expect their shares to rebound.
The payment processing company's shares are climbing after its third-quarter results beat expectations.
The Federal Reserve should, but likely won't, stop hiking rates before it inflicts more economic damage.
What the Fed needs to see is how many jobs are really in jeopardy from a digitized world and how digitization is keeping inflation in check.
The market is giving no clue as to which way it is headed, so stick to fundamentals.