Is this becoming a 'single issue' market singularly focused on yields? That will eventually change, but the turning point seems a bit away.
Embrace and understand the impact of economics upon policy and the impact of policy upon economics.
While the Nasdaq has posted four consecutive winning sessions, the bottom fishing that has benefited the large tech names may be growing exhausted.
After a challenging few months, investors are skeptical at start of October. But we remain constructive on stocks into year-end, even with near-term risks.
Despite a high volume of noise, inflation remains the primary macro driver for markets, while a government shutdown could put the Fed on an automatic 'structural pause.'
Let's go to the charts to create game plans for three names that have fallen into oversold territory.
In some ways, a government shutdown might actually automatically put the Fed on a 'structural pause.'
The effect of higher interest rates on the housing market and the economy in general are only beginning to kick in.
The market finally bounced on Thursday as interest rates dropped, but now the issue is whether the PCE report will bring in more buyers.
Volatility is picking up, but I believe it could become much more intense in the first half of next year.
The price action this week does not change our thesis that inflation remains the key macro driver for markets.
There's a long list of negatives that have created uncertainties the market will need time to fully discount.
We remain constructive through year-end as inflation remains key and, we believe, on a glidepath lower.
The market is struggling with a downtrend, and an oversold bounce is likely, but whether it will turn into a new uptrend is the key question.
Here's why we believe 'higher for longer DUE to higher GDP' has a more dovish tone, and remain constructive for the rest of the year.
We view the magnitude of the equity drop and commensurate surge in yields disproportionate to the FOMC rate decision and press conference.
Caution and stock market congestion may lie ahead as interest rates stay higher for longer, while the stock market decline has now assumed a global character. Plus, more lessons from Howard Marks.
The Fed Chair did not sound as sure of himself or the committee as has in the past. He seemed as uncertain about the future of the economy as are the rest of us, which is a negative.
Markets are apprehensive into the September FOMC. But we think the risk/reward is actually somewhat positive into this meeting. Stay with Technology, Energy and Industrials.
We know there are quick and often violent reactions to the Fed's pronouncements, so be prepared, even that means sitting on your hands.
The FOMC likely wants everyone to see this meeting as more of a 'skip' and less of a 'pause.'
If you think we have no idea concerning economic growth, just get a load of these professional economists -- all working at regional district branches of our nation's central bank.
Traders would do well to take a wait-and-see approach to the market ahead of the Fed's next meeting.
The noted economist who suggests that inflation has been brought down painlessly serves as a contrary indicator for this investor.
Conditions are ripe for some difficult trading action this week.
The week following the September 'triple-witching' expirations event, which was this past Friday, is often the worst week for U.S. market performance for the entire year.
We see multiple reasons to expect improved market performance going into the second half of September.
The song 'For What It's Worth' has relevance to the current conflict between bulls and bears.
The FOMC will have to altar market expectations for the November 1st decision in order to restore flexibility/optionality in decision making.
The battle continues, and the best way to navigate it is to stay focused on price action.
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