Toll Brothers (TOL) is the poster child for upscale homes on the east coast. Their corporate offices in Pennsylvania are just a short drive west from where I live. The stock has climbed from the $15 area in March to about $55 now.
Do the charts have the foundation for further gains or will we see a short-term pullback? Let's check.
In this daily bar chart of TOL, below, we can see the strong advance of the past 11 months. Prices are still in an uptrend above the rising 50-day moving average line and the rising 200-day moving average line. Trading volume has weakened over the past three months despite an upside breakout last month.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been flat the past three or four weeks and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has crossed to the downside for a take profit sell signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of TOL, below, we see a mixed picture. Prices are in an uptrend above the rising 40-week moving average line. The latest weekly candle pattern could be a bearish hanging man pattern.
The weekly OBV line has been rising since March and the MACD oscillator just turned up to a new buy signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of TOL, below, we can see that an upside price target of $51 has been reached. A decline to $50.51 will weaken the chart.
Bottom line strategy: Toll Brothers is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday and if traders are disappointed or worried about a rise in mortgage rates we could see TOL decline in price. I suspect a pullback or correction to be relatively shallow but stay on your toes.
Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.
Econ 101 suggests that at some point, either the supply side catches up, or demand falls to get prices back in equilibrium. Let's see what this means for oil -- and a potential recession.
Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation.
If you have questions, please contact us here.
Email
Email sent
Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.