We reviewed the charts and indicators of Deere & Co. (DE) back on Aug. 21 and wrote that, "I wish I noticed the upside breakout on DE sooner but there is still plenty of upside according to our Point and Figure charts. Traders could go long DE here risking a close below $180 for now. $245 and then $269 are our price targets."
Prices have not reached our first price target of $245, but the charts have shifted and a change of strategy may be in order.
Let's check out the latest charts.
In this daily bar chart of DE, below, we can see that prices continued higher after our positive review, but prices have become "stuck" in a largely $210-$220 range this month and the indicators have weakened. Prices are still above the rising 50-day moving average line and above the rising 200-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line bottomed in April and has improved into September, but the line has not kept pace with the price gains. This is not a bearish divergence, but it deserves mention.
The 12-day price momentum study shows lower highs from June to September, and that is a bearish divergence when compared to the price action. The pace of the advance of DE has been slowing and that can be a "heads up" that a reversal could develop.
In this weekly bar chart of DE, below, we can see that prices are above the rising 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line has moved up the last two months, but the rally in DE has been going on much longer. The slow stochastic indicator shows that DE is unwinding an overbought condition.
In this Point and Figure chart of DE, below, we can see a potential downside price target in the $197 area. Not all that bearish, but prices may not find much buying interest in that area.
Bottom line strategy: Weakness in the broad market averages could drag DE lower in the days and weeks ahead. Longs should nail down profits.
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