In our last review of Caterpillar ( CAT) on July 26 and summed up, "Traders who went long CAT in June should continue to hold those positions risking to $195 still. Strength above $220 will improve the picture."
Prices slumped enough in recent weeks to have stopped out our recommended longs before prices turned higher. This is not suggesting that trading without stops is better than trading with stops.
In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of CAT, below, we can see that prices have rallied above the declining 50-day moving average line. The 200-day line is above the market and cresting. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been in a decline from early June, but may be putting in a bottom. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator shows improvement from September and is close to a bullish crossover and buy signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of CAT, below, we can see lower shadows in September and October telling us that traders were rejecting the lows. Prices are below the 40-week moving average line but that may not last for long. The weekly OBV line shows a dip in September but a recovery underway this month. The MACD oscillator is narrowing towards a new buy signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of CAT, below, we can see an upside price target in the $235 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of CAT, below, we used a five box reversal filter and the software yields a $267 price target.
Bottom line strategy: If you were stopped out of CAT, I would dust yourself off and look to buy it back. Use a stop below $190 this time.
Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.
I didn't like the idea of a cash deal at the start, but after going through the fundamentals, I think it's a wise move -- and here's why I'm adding the stock.
Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation.
If you have questions, please contact us here.
Email
Email sent
Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.