• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Doug Kass
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • Trifecta Stocks
  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Cannabis

I Wouldn't Jump on the Tilray Bandwagon, But Here's What I Would Do

You think the Tilray brand name is worth $2.8B? Market cap is barely above $3B. Does give me pause.
By STEPHEN GUILFOYLE
Jan 10, 2022 | 10:20 AM EST
Stocks quotes in this article: TLRY

Tilray (TLRY) surprised Wall Street on Monday morning with some profitability, even if revenues disappointed. For their fiscal second quarter, the firm posted GAAP EPS of $0.00, which beat Wall Street by roughly a dime, and showed as a significant improvement from the loss of $0.37 per share reported for the comparable year ago period. Net income hit the tape at $6M, up from $-89M a year ago. However, Tilray generated just $155.15M in revenue for the period, good for year over year growth of 19.8%, but well short of Wall Street'ss expectations.

There were some significant accomplishments over the three months ending November 30th. Tilray points out that the firm has achieved $70M in cost synergies from the Aphria merge, and is on track to exceed the original plan of $80M ahead of schedule. Tilray also points out the potential for an additional $20M in cost synergies for fiscal 2023.

Tilray posted adjusted EBITDA of $13.8M, for an eleventh consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, while adjusted gross margin for the cannabis segment landed at 43% for a second consecutive reporting period.

Segment Performance

The firm's largest business, Distribution, actually drove less revenue for this quarter, $68.9M, than for the same period one year ago ($73.9M), as this segment still drove 44% of the firm's sales, down from 57% a year ago. Cannabis drove 38% of sales at $58,8M, up from $54.8M a year ago. Newcomer segments Wellness ($13.8M), and Beverage Alcohol ($13.7M) contributed 9% a piece toward the revenue pie, and were not really part of the picture last year.

The CEO

Chairman and CEO Irwin D. Simon commented... "Our second quarter performance reflects notable success building high-quality and highly sought after cannabis and lifestyle CPG brands which, coupled with our scale, operational excellence and broad global distribution, enabled us to increase sales and maintain profitability despite sector-specific and macro-economic headwinds."

On regional adaptation, the CEO went on... "Looking at performance highlights across key markets, we maintained our #1 cannabis market share position in Canada - despite market saturation and related competitive challenges - on the strength of our brands and adept pricing and market adjustments. In Germany - Europe's largest and most profitable medical cannabis market - our nearly 20% share leads the market."

Simon added, "Turning to the U.S., Sweetwater Brewing and Manitoba Harvest continued to invest in product innovation and acquisitions to enhance awareness and distribution. These profitable businesses further provide an opportunity to launch THC-based products upon federal legalization in the U.S."

The Balance Sheet

First, almost everything is smaller. Second, though down significantly from six months ago, the firm's cash balance still stands at more than twice the firm's long-term debt load (also down). I like that. Current assets stand more than twice current liabilities. The current ratio is obviously in fine shape. Total assets stand at almost five times total assets less equity. That would be great, but one entry screams out at me. Goodwill. It has not changed, but it does dominate the asset side of the balance sheet. At more than $2.8B, the entry for goodwill accounts for 48.8% of total assets. That seems right to you? Given that total total hard assets would still decisively outweigh total liabilities, it only makes me wonder "why?" That, I don't like.

My Thoughts

The firm does seem to be improving its execution. Of that, I don't think there is any doubt. You think the Tilray brand name is worth $2.8B? Market cap is barely above $3B. Does give me pause. 11% of the float is short. Could see a mini short squeeze this morning.

Nice chart. Not. The shares came in Monday morning severely oversold from a technical perspective. That said, by either Relative Strength or the Full Stochastics Oscillator, Tilray has been oversold for almost two months straight. I came into this piece thinking that maybe I would put this name into the "Stocks Under $10" portfolio, or at least in the bullpen.

I changed my mind. Not only would I not jump on this morning's bandwagon, I think if I were long these shares that I would take advantage of short sellers forced to chase the stock this morning and make a sale. That entry for goodwill. I just don't like it.

Sarge out.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

At the time of publication, Stephen Guilfoyle had no position in the securities mentioned.

TAGS: Investing | Stocks | Technical Analysis | Trading | Cannabis

More from Cannabis

Is a Stealth Bull Market Developing in These Long-Suffering Sectors?

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
May 16, 2022 11:10 AM EDT

I have my eye on relative strength in groups that have lagged for a very long time.

As the Market Struggles to Bounce Back, Here's My Game Plan

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
May 12, 2022 11:04 AM EDT

Many stocks are very oversold, and sentiment is about as bad as it gets.

A New Pot ETF Just Lit Up, So Let's Get Deep Into the WEEDs

Mark Abssy
Apr 21, 2022 1:35 PM EDT

Here we'll hash out the differences among cannabis players and see high how Roundhill Investment's The Cannabis ETF can go.

Mosaic's Chart Pattern Suggests Its Share Price Could Grow Even Bigger

Ed Ponsi
Apr 8, 2022 10:00 AM EDT

Pressure on fertilizer supplies due to sanctions against Russia because of the war in Ukraine makes the potash producer a star performer in a down market.

I Wouldn't Go 'All In' on Tilray, But Here's How I'd Trade It

Stephen Guilfoyle
Apr 6, 2022 10:50 AM EDT

Tilray is okay in my book for speculation.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 02:46 PM EDT STEPHEN GUILFOYLE

    We're Shedding Some of This Holding on Strength

    Check out the Stocks Under $10 portfolio here!
  • 11:33 AM EDT PETER TCHIR

    Thoughts Ahead of the Fed Minutes

    Recent economic and earnings issues are convincing...
  • 02:24 PM EDT PAUL PRICE

    An Interesting Chart

    I'm betting heavily that stocks will be way up aga...
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2022 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login