Many market players have been hopeful that a combination of fiscal and monetary action would help the market to bounce back from the pounding that has been taking place. The Fed moves have not produced any sustained market upside so far and now the market is hoping that announcements of a number of fiscal policies including delayed payment of taxes and direct cash payments will produce some positive sentiment.
While the market is reacting favorably to the policies proposed just now, the problem is that they are not sustained because we sill don't know what might happen with the coronavirus. The experts at this press conference make it quite clear there is a large range of potential outcomes and that they don't have enough information to narrow it down.
In 'normal' corrective action there is almost always sizable relief rallies as there is at least the perception of greater certainty at some point. That has not been the case in the current environment and is a product of dealing with a health crisis that can't be easily controlled.
My game plan remains the same at this point. Trade the indices in very short term time frames but forego building longer-term positions for now. There may be some countertrend moves but the risk that the indices and most stocks will continue to struggle is too high.
One mistake I see far too many people make in this market is that they think that if they pick 'good' stocks then they have reduced risk. That doesn't work in a market when fundamentals are meaningless. The only way to navigate this market in the short term is based on psychology and emotions. There is very high risk that the uncertainty will cause even more selling. The odds of a V-shaped bounce are very low, so it just doesn't make much sense to put capital to work.
I flipped some index longs intraday and may see if there is a late day setup but I'm just going to try to cherry-pick a few quick direction trades when I can. I see absolutely no reason to act like the worst is over.