In our June 13 review of bitcoin futures we gave a sober outlook for prices including a price target: "In this daily Point and Figure chart of bitcoin, below, we can see the breakdown and a price target of $15,750." We concluded that, "Equity traders have been looking for 'capitulation' in the stock market for weeks. Maybe the capitulation is being played out in bitcoin."
Let's check the charts again.
In this daily bar chart of the continuous bitcoin futures contract, below, we can see that prices topped out in October/November. Prices have tumbled lower but have been interrupted by periodic rallies. The rally from late January to late March was the longest. The counter-trend rallies/corrections have become shorter in duration and that is a sign to me that the bear has taken control of the move. The slope of the 50-day moving average line and the 200-day line are negative.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been weakening since late October as traders of bitcoin have been more aggressive with heavier trading volume on days when the cryptocurrency has closed lower. The 12-day price momentum study shows equal lows in May and June even though prices made lower lows. This is a bullish divergence but it may not be significant enough to generate a recovery rally.