I have absolutely no idea what the market is going to do during the rest of 2020 but I will make a prediction. There will be some very big and unexpected moves and anyone that tries to predict precisely what will happen will look quite foolish.
What is most fascinating when we contemplate what lies ahead is that the fact that no one predicted what would happen in the first half of the year doesn't seem to discourage many folks from trying to guess what will happen in the second half. The inability to predict in the past doesn't seem to have any impact on those that think that is the way to approach the market.
Rather than try to guess what the market might do, the best way to be prepared is to cultivate an open mind and then be ready to react as conditions develop. Maybe this market continues to trend higher on steady improvement in the economy or maybe it rolls over again on concerns of the economic damage that is being done. Perhaps the Fed keeps pumping in trillions of liquidity that help stocks disconnect completely from the economy.
Rather than try to contemplate all the events that might occur, the best approach is to stay vigilant and be ready. I know - without a doubt - that I can profitably trade whatever action might occur. It will be a bumpy ride and I'll suffer some losses along the way but I am very confident that I can adapt and trade whatever conditions may develop.
Once you start thinking about the market in this way, you are empowered. You no longer are at the mercy of pundits that are lucky if they get it right just once in a row. You are free to take whatever action that conditions demand and can change course in the blink of an eye if necessary.
I not only don't try to predict what the market will do in the months ahead, but I actively avoid even trying. I don't want to have any bias. I want to view the action each day in a totally objective way. Once you start making predictions, the inclination is to start looking only at that data that supports what you already think. Most people don't like to admit that they are wrong and that causes them to stick with bad predictions even when the evidence starts to turn.
So what is going to happen in the third quarter? We will make some good money if we stay open-minded, vigilant, and reactive.