American International Group ( AIG) is poised to report their latest earnings numbers after the close of trading Tuesday. The stock has surged higher in October and may be anticipating stronger revenues. Let's check the charts to see if there is more upside or this is "buy the rumor and sell the news".
In our last review of AIG on August 8 we wrote that "I have no special knowledge of what AIG is going to tell shareholders Monday evening but the charts and indicators suggest there could be further price weakness in the weeks ahead. Avoid the long side."
In this updated daily bar chart of AIG, below, we can see that prices weakened from early August into late September. AIG has rallied swiftly from late September including a retest of the September low in early October. Prices have rallied to close above both the 50-day moving average line and the 200-day moving average line. AIG is testing its August high.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a long decline and only some minor improvement from early October. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has moved above the zero line for an outright buy signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of AIG, below, we can see the past three years of price action. AIG tripled from its early 2020 nadir but made a top pattern over the past two years. AIG has rallied above the declining 40-week moving average line but there is a band of overhead resistance in the $60-$65 area.
The weekly OBV line has been weak since October 2021. The MACD oscillator has crossed to the upside for a cover shorts buy signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of AIG, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $74 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of AIG, below, we can see a price target in the $76 area.
Bottom line strategy: The share price of AIG has rallied smartly in the past four weeks but trading volume has not really caught fire. With earnings due out after the close of trading Tuesday we might have a case of buy the rumor and sell the news. I would take no position in AIG today.
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