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  1. Home
  2. / Investing

A False Breakout on Altria's Charts Could Quickly Trip Up the Bulls

Let's review the charts and indicators.
By BRUCE KAMICH
Apr 28, 2022 | 10:12 AM EDT

Altria ( MO) reported their latest quarterly earnings Thursday morning, telling investors that they beat estimates for Q1 non-GAAP EPS and missed on revenue. Also, traders need to evaluate reports that the Biden administration is supposedly taking aim at menthol cigarettes. Let's check on the charts and indicators.  
 
In this daily bar chart of MO, below, we can see that prices rallied the past five months. MO is trading above the rising 50-day moving average line and above the rising 200-day line. The trading volume has been "uneven" the past five months but a picture of rising volume would have been better.
 
The math-driven On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a rise from early December. The 12-day price momentum study shows a pattern of lower highs from December to April telling us that the pace of the rally has slowed. When comparing the momentum study to the price action gives us a bearish divergence and is a tip off for a possible correction. 
 
 
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of MO, below, we can see that prices broke out above $52 which is a "neckline" going back to 2019. The recent candles show a large upper shadow above $56 telling us that traders rejected the highs. Prices are above the rising 40-week moving average line but this is a lagging indicator.
 
The weekly OBV line shows a rise from November but recently the line could be topping. The 12-week price momentum study shows weakening momentum from February. 
 
 
In this daily Point and Figure chart of MO, below, we can see a breakout at $57 and a potential price target of $69. 
 
 
 
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of MO, below, we can see the same $69 price target as the daily chart. A trade back down at $54 or lower could mean we have experienced a false breakout. 
 
 
 
Bottom line strategy: Not all breakouts work. Technical analysis is not 100% perfect. Price reversals are part of the stock market landscape. Traders should be cautious of the long side of MO.
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TAGS: Earnings | Investing | Stocks | Technical Analysis | Trading | Tobacco | Consumer Discretionary

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