2 Stocks Benefiting From the Great American Migration

Muscles aching to work, minds aching to create - this is man. - John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath I will be hitting my 'Great Exodus' theme one last time in 2021 in my column today. I have been highlighting this trend since the spring of 2020 as I think the pandemic and government actions taken because of it have brought about significant and permanent changes to the country that few in the media are covering. When I was growing up in the 70s, I remember my grandma and grandpa telling me how they had to uproot their six children from a small mining town in Utah for a trek to Portland during the Great Depression in search of work. I recall how my mother-in-law told the story of how she came to be in California when she was an infant as her family fled the famous 'dust bowl' years in Oklahoma that was so eloquently captured in Steinbeck's classic, 'The Grapes of Wrath'. Now we seem to be in another intrastate migration that will change the country in some significant ways in the coming years in my opinion. Some interesting factoids to provide some color behind this emerging trend. From 07/1/2020 to 07/1/2021, New York had just over 352,000 net individuals leave the Empire State for other states. That is approximately 1.5% of the state's population. California and Illinois followed in net migration loss on a percentage basis. Florida gained a net of 221,000 people during that time and Texas, Tennessee, Idaho, Utah, South Carolina and Georgia also had noticeable surges. This is one reason the stock of AMERCO is up some 60% this year and still seeing insider buying. This is also why real estate is blowing up all over south Florida and other destinations for these emigres in the south like Greenville, Nashville, Charleston and Asheville. I think commercial real estate in major cities like New York City will be compromised longer than the consensus believes as well, thanks to the emergence of a much more virtual workforce. I personally would have no exposure to REITs with extensive commercial real estate holdings in these cities people are migrating out of. Business demand is likely to be challenged for years if not the rest of the decade by the ability of so much more of the workforce to be stationed at home in any part of the country or world for that matter. Public storage is just killing it right now in my area where the cost of a 10x15 storage shed has gone up some 150% or more in the past year and a half. These types of increases have been a key driver to the 60% rise in the stock of Public Storage over the past year. Finally, this migration has some potentially significant political realignment ramifications if it continues. There is roughly one electoral vote per 620,000 people in the U.S, which means just more than one electoral vote just moved in one year just from the people leaving New York, California, and Illinois. If this wave continues, it will make the congressional seat allocation changes after the 2020 census look minor by the time the decade ends. The real estate I own in Delray Beach, Florida has seen some considerable capital appreciation thanks to this exodus. One of my New Year's resolutions in 2022 will to be more cognizant on capitalizing on this migration trend in my stock portfolio as well.

2 Stocks Benefiting From the Great American Migration

The pandemic and government actions taken because of it have brought about significant and permanent changes to the country.

Columnist Conversation

Beefing Up the Portfolio With a Three-Course Trade

Listen to the Latest AAP Podcast!

This Weekend on Real Money

COLUMNIST TWEETS

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.