Tom Lee and the FSI Team
Tom Lee’s FS Insight has joined up with TheStreet’s Chairman’s Club to bring you comprehensive macro, stocks, and crypto coverage.
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Despite a high volume of noise, inflation remains the primary macro driver for markets, while a government shutdown could put the Fed on an automatic 'structural pause.'
In some ways, a government shutdown might actually automatically put the Fed on a 'structural pause.'
The price action this week does not change our thesis that inflation remains the key macro driver for markets.
We remain constructive through year-end as inflation remains key and, we believe, on a glidepath lower.
Here's why we believe 'higher for longer DUE to higher GDP' has a more dovish tone, and remain constructive for the rest of the year.
We view the magnitude of the equity drop and commensurate surge in yields disproportionate to the FOMC rate decision and press conference.
Markets are apprehensive into the September FOMC. But we think the risk/reward is actually somewhat positive into this meeting. Stay with Technology, Energy and Industrials.
We see multiple reasons to expect improved market performance going into the second half of September.
When incoming data convince the Fed to no longer see the need for further hikes, we expect multiple markets to reprice. We're removing our tactical OW of regional banks.
Two items drove the entire surprise. But with tape bombs ahead, investors will likely be wary until next week's Fed's rate decision.