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Real Money authors - Stephen Guilfoyle

Stephen Guilfoyle

Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle is the founder and President of Sarge986 LLC, a family run trading operation. An NYSE floor trader for over 30 years, Guilfoyle has served as the Chief Market Economist for Stuart Frankel & Co., the U.S. Economist for Meridian Equity Partners, and as a Vice President in Block Trading and Investment Banking with Credit Suisse over the years. Guilfoyle earned his nickname serving as an actual sergeant in reserve components of the US Marine Corps, and US Army while simultaneously working on Wall Street.
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Recent Articles By The Author

Here Comes the Weekend

It's been a long day. They all are. It's been a fun day. Again, they all are. Well, mostly. The president spoke with reporters late. He really did not say anything positive or negative. He did mention China, Iran, his political opponents. The market...

Took My FANGs Out

FYI Covered Facebook long. Cleaned up options positions in Amazon , Netflix , and Facebook last three days. Completely out of FANG going into weekend.

Current Probabilities for the Fed Funds Rate

As priced in by futures markets trading in Chicago.  Fed Funds Rate on July 19, 2019: 2.25% to 2.5%  July 31st: 100% likelihood of a cut, 22% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Sept 18th: 16% probability of a 75 basis point reduction from today's level...

Industrials Performance Now

Obviously My references to oil prices in the Kibsgaard piece were written just ahead of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard seizing a British vessel in the Straight of Hormuz. This has put some pop in oil late on Friday. By the way... the Industrials ar...

Farewell to Schlumberger's Kibsgaard

Black Gold Oil just can't get out of it's own way this week. In late Friday trading, in an environment that also includes an appreciating U.S. dollar, Texas Tea (WTI Crude) was priced at it's lowest levels of the day, and close enough to the lows of...

Cybersecurity: How to Play a Red Hot Name in a Sizzling Market

From CrowdStrike to Zscaler the cybersecurity is on fire.

Let's Wait Right Now on American Express

My gut is that American Express is likely being oversold this morning. Earnings beat. Revenue missed, but still grew 8%. Commercial services grew nicely at 14%. Consumer services is where the shortfall was at -4%. The firm interestingly reaffirmed g...

Mike Wilson's Market Correction Comments

Mike Wilson is the chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley . There's a story running at MarketWatch, where Wilson opines that he expects to see a 10% correction across U.S equity markets at some point over the next three months. In fact, Wilson's...

Initiating U.S. Bancorp

FYI, the spread between 90 day paper and 10 year notes is down to less than one basis point. Should this key spread un-invert, I would think that the banks might see a positive algorithmic response. U.S. Bancorp has already outperformed other banks ...

Strength of the Greenback

Incredibly, no matter how dovish different Fed speakers might sound, investors flock back to the U.S. dollar. The DXY or Dixie, also know as the US Dollar Index, has climbed higher on Friday morning - back above the 97 level - as other currencies ha...

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