Recent Articles By The Author
Influential Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spoke this week about how the Fed might combat a recession -- investors should listen up.
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
Reports of two potentially major buyouts show the risks of late-cycle corporate bond investing.
Be careful drawing too strong of a conclusion from these numbers.
It makes a lot of sense for the Fed to wean the market off its reliance on explicit forward guidance, but it won't be easy.
I do think those watching for where we are in the cycle should be paying close attention this earnings season.
There are a number of important questions stemming from this series of events.