Tom is a Head of Fixed Income and a Portfolio Manager at Brown Advisory, overseeing more than $6 billion in bond portfolios in both mutual funds and separate accounts. He has spent over 20 years in the fixed income business, concentrating on macroeconomic analysis. Prior to joining Brown Advisory, Tom was a managing director at Cavanaugh Capital Management. He served as a portfolio manager and was responsible for trading, analysis and management of taxable fixed income portfolios.
You can reach Tom on twitter @tdgraff
Recent Articles By The Author
Influential Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spoke this week about how the Fed might combat a recession -- investors should listen up.
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
Reports of two potentially major buyouts show the risks of late-cycle corporate bond investing.
Be careful drawing too strong of a conclusion from these numbers.
It makes a lot of sense for the Fed to wean the market off its reliance on explicit forward guidance, but it won't be easy.
I do think those watching for where we are in the cycle should be paying close attention this earnings season.
There are a number of important questions stemming from this series of events.
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
Let's face it, the numbers aren't great and the trend is bad.