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Making Sense of the Disappointing April Jobs Report (And How I Traded It)
When government data seems strange like this, it is more likely to be an artifact of sampling or some other one-off reason.
Inflation Could Rise, but Don't Bet on It
Why? It's not a good wager -- and there are better places for investors to put their money if the economy booms.
Of Course the Fed Didn't Discuss Tapering Back Easing -- Wink, Wink
The timing for tapering quantitative easing is not as far away, or as uncertain, as Powell would have you believe.
Here's Why Bonds Are Pausing, and Why Yields May Resume Their Rise
The possibility of lasting inflation is very real, and that possibility likely will result in bond yields continuing to rise.
How 'Inflated' PCE Figures Might Affect Fed Rate Hikes
Prices are rising, but the data is messy, especially right now. Here is how I'm thinking about it, and when the Fed might hike rates as a result.
Highlights From the March FOMC Minutes
I expect that stronger economic data will actually cause the market to assume more rate hikes down the road.
March Jobs Report: What Stock and Bond Investors Need to Know
On Friday alone markets added half a rate hike to 2023.
Are Bonds a Bargain Buy?
Let's look at the bull case for fixed income -- and why I'm still betting that rates keep rising.
Afraid of Inflation? I've Got Some 'TIPS' on What Not to Do
Tip No. 1: Beware of Treasury inflation-protected securities. Let me explain.
Fed Meeting Begins and Ends With Inflated Expectations
We're starting to really learn what Average Inflation Targeting means and what it would take for rate hikes.
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