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Strictly in terms of the trade war, the question is whether tariffs are ultimately inflationary or not.
Between favorable technicals and my view that a Fed rate cut is very likely, I'm bullish on Treasuries here.
Here's what we could hear and how it would impact the debt and equity markets.
From the Fed's perspective, wage growth doesn't matter anymore.
When you hear someone say that a curve inversion 'predicts' a recession, what it really means is that bond traders are 'predicting' a Fed rate cut.