Recent Articles By The Author

What Are the Real Risks to Investors of a Lengthy Period of Trade Uncertainty?

Strictly in terms of the trade war, the question is whether tariffs are ultimately inflationary or not.

Questions About Inflation and the Fed Going Forward

Between favorable technicals and my view that a Fed rate cut is very likely, I'm bullish on Treasuries here.

Here's My Take on the Jobs Market

After some choppiness earlier in the year, the employment picture has settled into a very strong place.

The Fed's Old 'MO' Is No More

What happened with the Fed Wednesday and how to position for what comes next.

Prepping for Next Week's Fed Meeting and a Deluge of Economic Data

Here's what we could hear and how it would impact the debt and equity markets.

Treasury TIPS Are Still a Bad Bet

TIPS just don't have the volatility to produce a big payoff, either in the breakeven or the resulting price action.

How to Play the New 'Perma-Dove' Federal Reserve

Wednesday's FOMC minutes convince me that the central bank is becoming less strict about preventing inflation.

March Jobs Report: How to Interpret and Trade the Latest Numbers

From the Fed's perspective, wage growth doesn't matter anymore.

A Slower but Not Slowing Economy

The economy has slowed from its mid-2018 pace, but it is now stable at this slower pace.

Fed at Center of Yield Curve Inversion and Falling Rates

When you hear someone say that a curve inversion 'predicts' a recession, what it really means is that bond traders are 'predicting' a Fed rate cut.

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