Expect the boredom to really set in here this afternoon. I'd remember the phrase, "never short a dull market" as well.
Just not enough going on to make a big commitment either way, but the intraday has been building steadily in terms of price action and if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) can get a five-minute close above $202.40, then the bulls may have enough momentum to add $0.40 more on today, but the rejection has been staunch at that level. I don't see a reason to get overly bullish under $202.40 or overly bearish above $201.70.
One chart I do like here is Weibo (WB). I know this is a current favorite of Bob Lang and Chris Versace, and I can see why.
After a breakout last week, the stock spent a few days consolidating and retesting the breakout levels before pushing higher yet again. The stock is only $0.40 off the 52-week highs here, and could challenge those before the end of the year.
The longer-term moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has poked its head into bullish territory for the first time in well over a month. When the long-term MACD has been bullish, the stock has performed best.
We also see an expansion of the Bollinger Bands along with price, which threatens to squeeze the 10% of the float that is currently short. Any indicator I punched into the daily chart came up bullish here, from volume to volatility to trend to momentum. It did not make any difference.
I think there are two approaches here. One is straight up stock, with a stop around $19. The upside here looks to be in the $22-$23 range, so I am not too excited about a buy-write here. The premiums on the January $23 aren't pulling in any premium and with a squeeze possibility, I don't want to limit myself.
Given this can be a big mover, I am not excited about the idea of a put spread either, but a simple call, like the January $20 calls around $1.15, would provide a similar capital risk to buying the stock with a $19 stop; however, it has have less downside. The trade-off is you'd be holding the options over the Christmas break and get hit with some time decay.
One alternative is to buy the January $20-$21 call spread and look to buy back the short call after one of the next two holiday weekends. The risk there is a limited upside, but rather than buy a single January $20 call, a trader could buy twice as many call spreads and then work with those after the long weekend to adjust them. At the moment, I've just got long the stock at $20.28 and we'll see how it plays out today.