For all the fabulous action Friday, for all of the amazing jumps and terrific gains, it didn't change much for the overall market.
In fact, after looking at the charts, it is pretty clear that the only real change that occurred was that some old-time pharma and some old-time tech joined in on the positive side, and that banks really can rally if the Fed raises rates. I could contend that those moves were happening ahead of this number and there was no real change.
Underneath, however, the problems are looming, and those problems have to do with the commodity losers that are now bleeding into the mainstream of the credit markets.
The action in Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Chesapeake (CHK) must not be lost on anyone. They are more important than Action Alerts PLUS portfolio holding Starbucks (SBUX) and Nike (NKE) and Ross Stores (ROST). They can take more hedge funds down and they can't be controlled, because they have to do with the absolute direction of energy and minerals and mining.
Oddly, despite gasoline going down, there have been no real beneficiaries in the retail and restaurant world. I think that's because of the need for many of these companies to pay better wages yet not being able to put through price increases. Therefore gross margins aren't going higher.
Now, it is possible to build a significant advance with banks, insurance companies and techs going higher. However, that's a very hard call if utilities, real estate investment trusts, oils, minerals, mining, manufacturing, transports and health care all rolling over, with a few exceptions.
So, despite the better employment, and despite the lower gasoline, and despite the big gains in the averages, I simply still think we are in no man's land or perhaps worse, if oil doesn't rally and the dollar starts going back up.
In other words, it looks a heck of a lot better than it is.