Fluid. Too fluid.
It's difficult to make any informed decision at this moment about stocks, when oil and tweets are so important to the direction of the market, and neither is all that predictable.
In the last 72 hours we have seen OPEC be on the verge of a deal to freeze production, then have that deal totally undone, and now there is talk that not only will they freeze production, they will even cut production. All of this is occurring in a total vacuum, with no news at all from Iran, which is the country that's been most obstinate about not cutting production.
So oil flies around like a small-cap stock and the S&P futures traders can't seem to factor it in the way they normally would, especially because President Elect Trump's making moves all over the place that impact so much of what could drive stocks otherwise.
Think about it. Steve Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross, two total Wall Street-ers, just get Treasury and Commerce, and you would expect stocks would soar on that news. Except, they have already soared.
Then, throw in the news about Trump getting Carrier to keep 1000 jobs in Indiana, and who knows what to think? Some could say the natural progression of things in corporate America might be totally upset by the Carrier decision. We have seen years and years of offshoring to boost earnings and the market has lapped it up.
Now, though, a publicly traded company has changed its position on a decision that would have led to higher earnings per share because the next president of the United States "bargained" with the company to keep 1000 jobs here.
That's certainly the opposite of what, say, you would expect from an administration that just hired Wilbur Ross, who is a hard-headed capitalist who has had to take huge costs out of companies to make them work.
Or, if you wanted to translate it in to terms that make sense on Wall Street, you would be cutting numbers for United Technologies (UTX) because of the change in venue for Carrier, but perhaps would pay more for those reduced earnings because you are satisfied that Mnuchin and Ross will be steady pro-business administrators.
Mnuchin. Ross. Carrier. Iran. OPEC.
Lots of variables.
Too many variables to make any big bets. Too much in play... for now.