There has been a shift going on with the shares of Lennar (LEN), and the bulls are probably not going to be happy.
In this chart above, you need to focus on the 200-day moving average. In December, January, May, June, and August LEN dips toward the rising 200-day average. These dips turned out to be good buying opportunities. Now LEN is below the 200-day moving average. We are about to see a dead cross from the 50-day and 200-day averages. The On-Balance-Volume line is flat. Our trigger point would be a close below $47. Below $47 the chart is bearish and traders should act accordingly.
Nov. 24, 2015 | 3:50 PM
General Mills Is Stuck Trading Sideways
- When shares break out, we'll be ready.
General Mills (GIS) has been stuck in a $54 to $60 range since April. The 200-day moving average is still positive, but the 50-day average has been "whipsawed" with the sideways range. On the bear side of the ledger, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line peaked in October. GIS would break out on the upside with a close above $60, but a close below $55 is likely to tip the scales to the downside.
The technical signals from this chart, above, are mixed. The 40-week moving average is still bullish. The OBV line is neutral but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is pointed down and may be what shifts the overall picture to the bear. Traders should remain flexible and go with either an upside breakout if it occurs, or get defensive if we break below $55.
Nov. 24, 2015 | 3:15 PM
AptarGroup Is Still Heading Higher
- Stay on the long side of ATR by using an appropriate stop-loss point.
AptarGroup (ATR) broke out to the upside in late July, but quickly retreated before launching another upside move in late September (see the chart below).
This chart of ATR, above, also shows that the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been up since May. Also the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages have been very positive since early August.
This longer-term view of ATR, above, shows a positive OBV line on this timeframe and a very positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator. Traders should stay on the long side of ATR, using an appropriate stop-loss point.
Nov. 24, 2015 | 1:30 PM
Panera Bread Getting Stale
- PNRA is vulnerable to further weakness in the short term.
Shares of Panera Bread (PNRA) have seen some very choppy trading over the past 12 months.
In this chart of PNRA, above, we can see that the $180 level has been a "line" where big swings have started or stopped. PNRA has recently rallied to the underside of the 200-day moving average, which is now at $180. Also, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is generally trending lower and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is below zero. The bottom-line short-term view is that PNRA is vulnerable to further weakness.
This longer view of PNRA, above, shows prices below the 40-week moving average. The OBV line is weakening on this time frame, suggesting a liquidation of longs. Also, the MACD oscillator has rolled over and is heading to below zero. With a weakening chart picture for PNRA, traders should take appropriate action -- getting out of longs and then probing the short side.
Nov. 24, 2015 | 12:45 PM
Thomson Reuters Stock is Bad News
- Our first downside target is $36.
Typical of news organizations, when Thomson Reuters (TRI) reports on a stock, it aims to get the "story" behind any price movement, refusing to recognize that the marketplace discounts the news well in advance. Maybe people there should take a look at their own company's chart, first.
In this chart of TRI, above, we can see that rallies into the $41 to $43 area have failed several times in the past 12 months. The recent October/November decline has taken the share price of TRI back below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Selling has become more intense, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is in a tailspin and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is bearish. A close below $39 could weaken the picture.
This chart of TRI, above, is weakening. Prices are below the 40-week average, the OBV line is softer and the MACD oscillator is on the defensive. Our first downside target is $36.
Nov. 24, 2015 | 12:15 PM
Fabrinet Chart Shows Potential 30% Upside
- There could be a short-term correction lower in FN; consider it a buying opportunity.
Fabrinet (FN) broke out to new highs for the year in October and should be added to your shopping list.
In this daily chart of FN, above, you can see the breakout to new highs for the year and move up in October. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line turned up nicely, confirming the rally and the trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is near the zero line, but "fading." There could be a short-term correction lower in FN, but I would consider it a buying opportunity. If prices dip into the $23 to $22 area, one could probe the long side of FN with a protective stop below $21.
This longer-term view of FN, above, shows that the recent breakout also cleared the highs of 2014. The 40-week moving average is pointed up, telling us that we are in an uptrend. The OBV line is rising, which is positive, along with the MACD oscillator. The strong, long-term view supports the short-term outlook, above. Our longer-term price outlook is a retest of the 2011 high near $30.
