Watching a number of retailers decline this morning prompted us to look at another one of New York's iconic brands -- Tiffany & Co. (TIF). Everyone knows their packaging, but the charts suggest that TIF is losing its luster and Santa may prefer other stores on 57th St. this season.
Prices for TIF have been trending irregularly lower the past 12 months, as can be seen in the chart above. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have a negative slope and tell us we should trade with the trend, which is pointed downward. Though the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line did improve from April to early August, it has been working lower since.
This longer-term chart, above, puts the rise and fall of TIF in a different light. TIF more than doubled from its 2012 lows. The rally ended with a gap down in early 2015 and the 40-week moving average was broken. TIF has trended lower with the OBV line declining and the MACD oscillator in negative territory -- both indicators confirming the decline. This chart shows some support around $70, and that looks like the most likely target for TIF.
Editors' note: To better serve Real Money readers and present our content in the best possible way, we've revised the format for Bruce Kamich's chart analysis. Bruce will continue to analyze multiple names and sectors throughout the trading day, but we will bundle these into fewer stories that are updated regularly in one story. So please look out for the latest from Bruce to see what's new and catch up on what' you've missed. And we welcome reader input, so feel free to add your thoughts in the comments section.
Nov. 11, 2015 | 11:45 AM
Autodesk Goes 0 to 60; Can Acceleration Continue?
- We would prefer to buy a close above $65 and then use a sell-stop at $59.
Autodesk (ADSK) went from zero to sixty the past month and it has now reached an interesting crossroad.
Chart readers have to be impressed with the rapid advance in this chart of ADSK, above. ADSK turned on a dime at the beginning of October, volume increased and the On-Balance-Volume line (OBV) turned up to confirm the gains. Prices closed above the 50-day simple moving average and kept going. The 200-day moving was cleared at the end of the month. The trend following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator gave a bullish crossover and is above the zero line. The chart of ADSK shows some prior resistance in February, March and April in the $60 to $65 area, but ADSK has already pushed more than halfway through that zone.
In this longer-term view of ADSK, above, we can see prices are above the 40-week moving average, the OBV line is poised to make a new high and the MACD oscillator is nearly above the zero line. Prices are extended on the upside, so it might be prudent to wait for a pullback to buy, but that hasn't happened during the rally. Instead, we would prefer to buy a close above $65 and then use a sell-stop at $59.
Nov. 11, 2015 | 10:51 AM EST
Will Macy's Finally Find Support at $40?
- M gapped lower this morning, making a new low for the move down.
The annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade later this month could be a bummer this year unless the price of the stock bottoms out.
Macy's (M) peaked in July and turned lower, breaking below the 50-day simple moving average and not looking back. The On-Balance-Volume line turned down in August, confirming the liquidation and the downtrend. A bullish divergence between the lower lows in price and higher momentum readings in August and September produced a very limited bounce. M gapped lower this morning, making a new low for the move down. If this gap is filled fairly soon it could be an exhaustion gap, but it is too soon to say for sure.
This longer-term chart of M shows the rally years and the recent breakdown. With the 40-week moving average pointed down, the On-Balance-Volume line edging lower and no bullish divergences versus the momentum study, M could test next support around $40. $40 acted as resistance in 2012 and could act as support on this decline. We'll check in on Macy's again after Black Friday.
Nov. 11, 2015 | 010.:20 AM EST
L-3 Communications Is Primed for Another Upside Attempt
- The daily price action for LLL looks like a bull flag formation
L-3 Communications (LLL) has been a volatile issue, trading down towards $100 this summer from over $130 in February. In the past month, LLL has rapidly retraced back up to $130.
There is a lot going on in this short-term chart of LLL, above. There was a dead cross with the 50-day and 200-day moving average in June. In late August and late September prices of LLL make a lower low, but the momentum study in the bottom panel makes a higher low or a bullish divergence. Prices for LLL shot up in October, crossing above the 50-day moving average and then dipping and holding above the average. Near the end of October, prices cleared the 200-day moving average and have been slowly pulling back to that lagging indicator.
This longer-term view of LLL, above, shows LLL in almost a two-year trading range bounded by $100 on the downside and the $130+ area on the upside. The On-Balance-Volume line on this time frame is moving in concert with the price action.
The daily price action for LLL looks like a bull flag formation. LLL has made enough of a pullback and should make another upside attempt very soon, or this bull flag will dissolve into something else. Traders could go long LLL on strength above $125 and add to longs above $133. Use a sell-stop at $118 for now.
Nov. 11, 2015 | 09:24 AM EST
Campbell Soup Still Warming Up, Despite Recent Pullback
- The $48 area should act as support for CPB.
Slow and steady wins the race? That's what we think of when we look at the chart of Campbell Soup (CPB).
Even though CPB has made some dips and some pullbacks, the trend over the past twelve months has been up, according to the chart, above. In February, the end of May and late June, CPB encountered resistance around $48. Prices broke below $48 briefly in August and have retreated to that level, again, in recent days. With prices relatively oversold -- looking at the low readings on the stochastic indicator -- I suspect the $48 area will act as support for CPB.
This longer-term chart of CPB, above, shows the slow and steady advance for this iconic name. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is gently up-sloping, and positive. Prices have pulled back to the 40-week moving average. Traders and investors could go long near $48, and add to longs on a move above $52.50 with a sell-stop below $46.
