I looked at the charts and indicators of Total (TOT) in early February, and I recommended that, "TOT can be bought here with a sell-stop below $47 for now. Add on a close above $52 and $66 is our price target. Throw in a quarterly dividend and everyone should be happy." Nine months later and the charts are more bullish now that prices have broken above $55.
With the active December future of crude oil rising past $57 this afternoon, a fresh look at the charts and indicators of TOT is a good idea.
In this daily bar chart of TOT, below, we can see that our strategy outlined back in February would be successful as prices did not break $48 on the downside and have closed above $52 to signal our second buy. Prices are above the rising 50-day moving average line and above the rising 200-day line. In early September the 50-day line crossed above the 200-day line for a bullish "golden cross." the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has risen the past year but the buying has been stronger since early July. The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is in a bullish configuration above the zero line.
In this weekly bar chart of TOT going back to late 2014 I can see a large bottom formation with a "neckline" across $55. If you take the distance from the neckline to the low point at $40 and project that up from the breakout you get $70 as a price target. Prices are above the rising 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line has been rising since early 2015 and is very bullish. The weekly MACD oscillator is in a bullish mode.
In this long-term Point and Figure chart of TOT, below, you can see the large base and the upside price target of $70 to confirm the price target from the weekly bar chart.
Bottom line -- aggressive traders can add to long positions around current levels and risk a close below $53 now. $70 is our upside price target.
