The cover of the latest issue of Barron's proclaims Weyerhaeuser (WY): smart housing play, 40% upside.
I think I have a smarter housing play: Canadian lumber company West Fraser Timber (WFT as listed on the Toronto Exchange).
This first chart of WY, above, shows the rally from the early 2009 low and the downward correction this year. Prices for WY are not quite as oversold as they were in 2009 looking at the stochastic indicator in the lower panel.
This daily chart of WY, above, shows the decline this year and a small bottom in late August and September. WY rallied last month crossing the 50-day moving average and stopping so far at the declining 200-day moving average. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows modest improvement in October.
This long-term chart of WFT shows the rally from the 2009 low and the decline this year. The stochastic reading for WFT shows prices more oversold than the lows in 2011 and 2009.
This chart of WFT, above, shows a dead/death cross for the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (when the 50-day goes below the 200-day) in August with prices stabilizing the past month and the On-Balance-Volume line holding steady.
WFT presents a more attractive risk/reward profile in that we can buy WFT only risking $4 (Canadian) and an upside target of perhaps $60 (ratio of better than 3 to 1) while a new long in WY would probably have to risk a close below $29 or $27 for a rally into resistance around $33 (or a ratio of around 1 to 1). A layer of chart resistance can be seen from $30 to $33 for WY.