Textron Inc. (TXT) has been hit with a wave of selling recently. A lot of technical damage has been done on the charts. Where might we anticipate support or a bounce? We have not looked in on TXT since April where I wrote that, "The charts and indicators of TXT are strong and pointed higher. Traders should look to buy TXT around $64 or closer to $63 but I do not think the gap will be filled. Risking below $60 my target is the $80-$81 area." Prices did rally but stopped short of my price target. Let's check to see what has changed.
In this updated daily bar chart of TXT, below we can a fairly rapid decline from $72 down to $58. Prices broke the flat 50-day moving average line and today gapped sharply below the still rising 200-day line. The support (prior resistance) from January into April is being tested now. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a peak back in early June and is close to a new low for the move down. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has quickly sunk below the zero line this month for an outright sell signal.
In this weekly bar chart of TXT, below, we do not have today's price action included but we know we are trading below the rising 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line shows a double top pattern and the MACD oscillator is in a bearish mode.
In this Point and Figure chart of TXT, below, we can see today's sharp move lower without a gap. The is a downside price target of $56.29 but I would not be surprised to see prices exceed late level.
Bottom line strategy: when prices drop as sharply as they have on TXT it is hard to guess where buyers might come in. Prices could get some bottom pickers in the $58-$56 area or we could see further weakness down to $54 for example. The best advice I have is to not trying to catch a falling knife.
