The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) has been in a wide sideways trading range the past twelve months. The indicators are mixed so this period of "limbo" could continue a while longer in my opinion. (Jim Cramer noted recently that the company's management needs to demonstrate its revival plan at its analyst day Tuesday.) Let's check out all the charts and indicators to see if we can cook up an intelligent strategy for the weeks ahead.
In this daily bar chart of SJM, below, we can see a small double top formation in January and March as prices peaked. Prices show some bottoming activity (think triple bottom) from June as buyers seem to enter in the $105-$100 area. From a trend perspective SJM is still below the declining 50-day moving average line and the bearish 200-day line. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows aggressive selling from April to June and up and down action since June. A move above the August price highs with the OBV line making new highs is needed to turn this chart positive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is below the zero line but narrowing towards a cover shorts buy signal.
In this weekly bar chart of SJM, below, we can see that prices have made a one-third retracement from around $155 to around $105-$100. Prices are still below the declining 40-week moving average line but moving averages are lagging indicators. The weekly OBV line shows a peak in early 2017 but it also shows some stability since June. The weekly MACD oscillator is below the zero line and could turn up or down depending on the price action ahead.
In this Point and Figure chart of SJM, below, we can see a downside price target of $91.78.
Bottom line strategy: SJM has made a meaningful correction based on time and percentage but that does not mean that buyers are ready to return. Let's be patient and wait for stronger signs of a turnaround.